Will Egypt Witness Second Revolution?

Egyptian uprising was inspired by Tunisian uprising which precipitated the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. The exit of Mubarak paved way for? the military to cling to power which did not go down well with the Pharaohs. Egyptians have continued to protest vehemently against the military governance in order to facilitate smooth transition to civil rule. Kingsley Opurum X-rays the situation.

The first anniversary of the Egyptian revolution took place on 25th of January, 2012. Egyptian society and the forces in Egypt were in a state of anticipation. World media had its cameras and correspondents in Cairo and major cities around the country. But many Egyptians wondered if the revolution amounted to nothing more than a military coup. It has been a year since the eruption of the first Egyptian revolution that stunned the world and ended 30 years of authoritarian, oppressive and corrupt rule by Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s last pharaoh.

Mubarak ended up in jail along with his sons and his regime’s major figures, with stories of their unimaginable corruption, brutality and looting surfacing ever since. But since then, most Egyptians have become angry and frustrated with the performance of the Military Council — comprising over a dozen elderly generals — that has taken control. Egyptians, political forces and revolutionaries have accused the Military Council of being accomplices with the remnants of the Mubarak regime and of refusing to enact real reform, to the point of actually waging a counter-revolution.

Egyptians have been enraged by the brutal suppression of peaceful demonstrations that followed the revolution, and in the arrests, humiliations and even killings of protesters. The Military Council is still controlling the state media and the political scene. Western governments and human rights organizations are expressing their dismay, with Human Rights Watch reporting killings and brutal attacks, some of them sexual, on protesters. Egypt’s revolution far from over the council is the Old Guard, desperately trying to preserve the military’s long-standing privileges and special status.

The military has been running Egypt since 1952 — with rulers such as Gen. Mohammed Naguib, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat, Mubarak and Marshal Tantawy coming from its ranks. The military has dominated Egypt’s modern political scene, with members serving as presidents, prime ministers, Cabinet ministers, governors, party elites, heads of the security services, ambassadors, heads of many companies, and even ministers of culture and the media — in a true Orwellian fashion.

The military institution in Egypt consumes over 25% of the government expenditure and owns about 30% of the national economy. The United States has given Egypt a hefty military aid package of billions of dollars for nearly three decades. Egyptians respect their armed forces, but are desperate for a civil state where human rights, rights of minorities, and accountability and transparency are guaranteed. They do not want another pharaoh-like president coming from that institution.

Egyptians were asked to commemorate the special occasion of the revolution’s first anniversary by taking to the streets last week, wearing black in mourning of the deaths of hundreds of the revolution’s martyrs. But some political forces refused to call it a celebration — they say the revolution is not finished and their demands have not been met. Demonstrators have already started to pour into Tahrir Square. Activists are calling for the immediate transition of power from the Military Council to a civilian council, or even an interim caretaker. Now, after bringing down the Mubarak regime and his notorious State Security apparatus, Egyptians have broken the fear barrier and believe there is no turning back. Will they stun the world again, with Egyptian Revolution, Part II?

In Cairo, where huge protests were at its peak. Tahrir Square has always been the epicentre of mass protests. The angry protesters have invariably assembled in Tahrir Square to reclaim the pro-democracy revolution they started 25th January 2011. Since it took control of the management of the transitional process, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces — appointed by the former president, Hosni Mubarak — has been following a three-sided strategy to contain and even frustrate the persistent demands for handing over power to a civilian authority and establishing an effective democratic system.

The military council has been breaking the revolutionary will of the protesters by arresting many and putting them in military courts (12,000 civilians so far); deliberately humiliating them (torturing many and exposing female protesters to virginity tests); making ordinary people feel disillusioned and even hate the revolution by failing to take tough measures against anarchy and restore law and order; and finally, encouraging fragmentation and discord among the country’s political actors. Like Mubarak, the military council has adopted the policy of “me or anarchy.”

Over the past few months, Egyptians have used enormous demonstrations to press their demands, starting with insisting on dismissing the government that Mubarak had appointed before he was ousted, purging the security forces and cleaning the Ministry of Interior, trying Mubarak and those responsible for the death of more than 800 peaceful protesters and the injury of thousands, and setting a clear and specific timetable for handing over power to civilians.

The military council has been reluctant to respond, and when it has, it has completely emptied these demands of any meaningful effect. Indeed, it appointed a new Cabinet in March but deprived it of any effective authority. It changed the name of the state security force while maintaining its old structure and savage practices, and it reluctantly put Mubarak and some of his aides before trial, but none has been indicted, and the process has been incredibly slow.

The parliamentary elections that was held in Egypt on 28th November, 2011 was distinctly by virtue of Egyptians persistent protests and demand, which the Islamist Brotherhood clinched virtually all the seats. The presidential election has been slated to take place on 30th June, 2012. But the consequential question is: will the military be able to cede power to a civilian rule?

The refusal of the army to relinquish power to a civilian government can inspire another revolution. Well, it is looming on the horizon that Egypt will witness another revolution.

Egyptian army has begun to replay Mubarak’s oppressive rule by trying to suppress any protest against its government. It has been killing and maiming protesters, raping women and plundering the economy. Army has frowned on the prospect of ceding power to a civilian rule in defiance of the people’s wish and the law.

It simply implies that the ouster of Hosni Mubarak has not yet provided any panacea to Egypt’s problem. This time, extinction of military rule may possibly address this nagging problem. The uprising in Egypt that ended the tyrannical regime of Hosni Mubarak was inspired by Tunisian uprising that ousted Ben Ali and also rendered him a fugitive. Subsequently, Libya’s revolt was inspired and then precipitated the ouster and demise of Libyan strong man, Muammar Gaddafi. This Arab Spring has continued to sweep the Arab world.