Three Days To US Election: Factors That Will Determine The Winner And Loser

As the presidential election in the United States remain just three days, both candidates, the incumbent President Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney have done everything possible to make their agenda acceptable to the people. They have also done everything to discredit each other during some of the debates organized for them. LEADERSHIP's Bureau Chief, ABIODUN OLUWAROTIMI, writes from New York on the factors that will determine the winner and loser as well as the acceptability of both candidates by the electorates.

Although, the majority of the Polls conducted ahead of the presidential elections had favoured the Democratic party's candidate who is also the incumbent, President Barrack Obama, the strength of the candidate of the Republican, Mitt Romney cannot be completely ruled out as well.

For instance, the most recent poll that was released on Friday shows President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney locked in a dead heat as Election Day nears.

The poll which was conducted by Fox News shows Obama and Romney both receiving support from 46 percent of likely voters.

The number shows a slight uptick for the president, who trailed Romney 46-45 in the same poll taken earlier in October, after the first of their three presidential debates. Independents favored Romney by 7 points, down from his 12-point edge in early October.

Among those voters who say they are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney is ahead by 53 to 42.

The GOP nominee also has an enthusiasm edge, with 69 percent of his supporters saying it is important that he win. Fifty-nine percent of Obama’s supporters say the same. Eighty-two percent of Romney supporters say the 2012 election is more important than 2008, with 66 percent of Obama supporters saying this year’s contest is more important.

Romney’s advantage among male voters at 51-42 is countered by the president's edge with women, who back him 50 to 42 percent.

But Obama is buoyed by his strong support from Latino voters. Hispanic voters surveyed in the poll said Obama represented the views of Latinos better, by 73 percent to 19.

On the issues, voters back Obama on foreign policy 51-43 percent, but believe Romney would be better at “improving the economy and creating jobs” by 52-43.

Forty-six percent said they were satisfied with the direction of the country, with 53 percent unsatisfied.

Both candidates were viewed positively by voters, with Romney posting a 51 percent favorable and 46 unfavorable rating. The president is at 52 percent favorable, with 46 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The Fox poll is just the latest to show a tight race with five days left in the campaign.

However, an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll conducted during the week showed that both Obama and Romney tied at 49 percent, while a CBS News/New York Times poll put Obama up 1 at 48-47. Conservative polling outlet Rasmussen shows Romney up 2, with 49 percent support to 47.

Although, President Obama still leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio, but the margin has shrunk since September.

A recent poll found Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 45 among likely Ohio voters. In September, the same poll found Obama leading 53 percent to 43. Three percent of likely voters surveyed said they are undecided.

Broken down by gender, Obama holds a double-digit lead among women over Romney, with 55 percent supporting Obama to 40 percent supporting Romney. But that margin, too, is smaller than in September, when the poll found Obama leading Romney among female voters 60 to 35. Among men, 51 percent support Romney and 44 percent Obama, the poll found.

On foreign policy, Obama leads Romney 50 percent to 43. Obama previously led Romney on the issue by 13 percentage points.

Still, the lead will come as welcome news to the Obama campaign as the two presidential contenders square off in their third and final debate Monday night. The subject of the debate is foreign policy.

Additionally, the poll found Ohioans see Obama as more compassionate about their problems than Romney. Sixty percent said the president cares more about the “needs and problems” of Ohio voters, while 37 percent said Romney cares more. That number is virtually unchanged from September.

Fifty percent said Obama would do a better job helping the middle class, while 41 percent tapped Romney.

Overall, the poll's findings are consistent with other surveys, both at the state and national level, showing a tight race just ahead of Election Day. Both candidates see Ohio as crucial to their victory strategy and have spent considerable time and resources campaigning in the state, with a particular focus on winning over middle-class voters.

Another point that the Republican is using to cut the edge of the Democrats is the rumoured deals in Iran nuclear talk. The report came two days before the third presidential debate while the Republicans were hitting President Obama from all sides over his handling of the attack in Libya..

Bolstering the criticism of his Senate colleagues, House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) took direct aim at the president in a sharply worded letter Friday demanding to know why the administration drew down the U.S. security presence in Libya amid a surge in violence.

But in a swift reaction, the White House denied the report as published by The New York Times that Obama's administration officials and Iran had agreed to one-on-one talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Denying it, National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said that the White House remained open to discussions in an effort to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

He also said that the administration would continue to work on a diplomatic solution and would also be prepared to meet bilaterally.

On energy policy, during a recent debate, both President Obama and Mitt Romney had wasted no time laying into one another’s energy policies.

Romney who was believed to have led in the said debate held in Denver noted that gasoline prices have risen considerably on Obama’s watch and noted more broadly that “middle-income families are being crushed.”

He also revived his criticism of Obama administration regulations that Republicans say are hurting the coal industry.

“People in the coal industry feel like they are being crushed by your policies,” Romney said at the debate in Denver.

Romney, a former Republican governor of Massachusetts, also touted his pledge to approve the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries, a project still under consideration by the Obama administration.

On the other hand, President Obama noted his support for oil-and-gas development, citing increased production during his presidency. But he has also accused Romney of turning his back on green energy and energy efficiency.

“I think it is important for us to develop new sources of energy here in America,” Obama said. “I also believe that we have got to look at the energy sources of the future like wind and solar and biofuels.”

In a swift attack, Romney said the rise in U.S. oil production has occurred “in spite” of Obama’s policies while Obama struck a populist tone in reiterating his call to end oil industry tax incentives.

“Does anybody think that Exxon Mobil needs some extra money when they are making money every time that you go to the pump?” Obama said.

However, many Republicans, some Democrats and the oil industry say that removing billions of dollars in tax incentives would likely stymie domestic oil-and-gas projects.

But Romney countered that many of the tax incentives go to smaller, independent companies, while adding that under his plan to lower corporate rates overall, ending those deductions would be “on the table.”

Mitt Romney had earlier berated President Obama in the opening minutes of the presidential debate, drawing sharp contrasts with the president's economic plan and accusing him of misleading the public on his own plan.

Romney called Obama's policies “trickle-down government,” and when Obama said Romney's own plan included a $5 trillion tax cut said the president was misrepresenting his plan.

“I've got 5 boys. I'm used to people saying something that's not always true but just keep repeating it and ultimately hoping I'll believe it,” Romney said before disputing the findings of a nonpartisan study Obama had been pointing to.

Romney, who has narrowly trailed Obama in recent polls, seemed to be looking to shake up the race with a strong attack on Obama's record, talking directly to the president as he spoke.

Mitt Romney stressed at the debate that his tax plan would not add to the deficit or hit the middle class after facing repeated claims to the contrary from President Obama.

He maintained that he would pay for his plan to cut tax rates by ending tax preferences for the highest earners, and said that under no circumstances would he increase the tax burden on the middle class.

“I don't have a $5 trillion tax cut. I don't have a tax cut of the scale that you're talking about,” Romney noted.

Romney also said that his plan would not reduce the amount of taxes paid by the highest earners, and that Obama’s plan to allow Bush-era tax rates at the top end to expire would drag down small businesses.

But Obama, citing a study from the Tax Policy Center, though not by name, said that Romney’s plan would shift the tax burden from the wealthiest to lower earners. The president also said that Romney’s plan would raise the average middle-class families’ tax bill by $2,000.

Reacting to the general view that President Obama was floored by Romney during the debate, US Vice President, Mr. Joe Biden came out to defend his master's debate performance, praising him for doing well and looking presidential.

“I think the president did well. He was presidential,” Biden said just before he gave a campaign speech in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

“You just don’t ever know what game, what positions Gov. [Mitt] Romney’s going to come with.”

The vice president's defense came as pundits on both sides of the aisle are panning Obama's performance in Wednesday night's first presidential debate, in Denver, saying the president looked subdued and tired. Biden also argued the debate revealed GOP nominee Mitt Romney doesn't have a clear position on taxes.

Biden's criticism was in reference to a part of the debate in which Romney strongly denied that his tax plan called for a $5 trillion tax cut that would mainly benefit the wealthiest Americans. Biden suggested that Romney was switching positions by denying support for the tax cut.